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QQQQ Options History of old System


This is the old signals history. The old options system differs from the new system by many parameters. The history of the signals generated by the old system does not reflect the performance of the new system therefore we keep it separate. The radical changes in the system were implemented to bring significant improvements to system performance. As you can see from the history, the system generated 7 positive versus 3 negative signals in 2005, however, the negative trades wiped out all of the previously earned positive returns.

After research, we have set the following points which should be changed in the system in order to improve the system's performance:

  1. The old system issued signals only after the market close. After market close, the data was analyzed, and based on this analysis, a trade was opened or closed. In some cases, the market put us in a position where we had to close our trade 10-15% lower, simply because we had to do it on the next trading day.

    The ability to analyze the market on the fly and generate corresponding signals during the trading hours was obviously a necessity.
     
  2. The trades with bigger then 50% loss practically wiped out all of the previously generated positive returns. Even the fact that the system was 60-70% efficient, did not help. The system needed a hard coded stop-loss strategy to protect from losses which made recovery difficult. Research shows that it's easier to recover from three 30% negative trades then from one 90% loss.
     
  3. The options price is affected by time, and staying in a position longer then one month makes it extremely difficult to close the position with positive returns even when the market moves in favor of the position. Furthermore, the system needed to be protected from being in the position for a prolonged period of time. The system needed a hard coded strategy to close a trade even with losses if the system was in a position for more then a 3-4 week period.
     
  4. Due to the high QQQQ volatility the system needed alternative and more conservative signals. We therefore decided to include SPY options signals in the system that would be less aggressive and more dedicated towards the conservative traders.
     
  5. The old options trading system was not designed for autotrading and was not autotraded. In order to satisfy demands of those traders who wished to autotrade our signals, the system had to be changed to fit the autotrading requirements.

The #3 and #4 points were set to protect the system from the big losses; however, these points could lead the system into generating more negative trades. On the other hand the #1 and #4 points were set to keep the system's efficiency at least on the same level.

We started to make changes to the system in April 2006 and all changes were completed in July 2006. Because of the radical changes that completely changed the system, we have maintained the history of the old system separate.

Signal Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Exit
Date
Exit
Price
Profit
%

On July 22, 2006, SPY options signals were added to the system.

QQQIK
Calls
07/10/06 15:40 $1.65 07/14/06 11:15 $1.00 -39.4%
QQQIL
Calls
06/19/06 09:30 $2.00 07/10/06 13:42 $1.10 -45.0%

On May 17, 2006, stop-loss criteria were added to the system and the stop-loss price is posted from the first date that the signal is issued.

QQQGO
Calls
05/11/06 14:33 $1.20 06/16/06 15:27 $0.15 -87.5%
QQQSQ
Puts
05/09/06 09:52 $1.40 05/10/06 15:26 $1.65 +17.9%
QQQGP
Calls
04/26/06 09:31 $1.40 04/27/06 12:18 $1.70 +21.4%
QQQFP
Calls
04/18/06 09:30 $1.15 04/18/06 12:19 $1.40 +21.7%
QQQFP
Calls
04/12/06 10:51 $1.25 04/17/06 10:14 $1.40 +12.0%
QQQRQ
Puts
04/06/06 10:50 $1.20 04/10/06 13:45 $1.40 +16.7%

Starting on April 1, 2006, signals are issued during the trading hours and not after the market closure.

QQQCP
Calls
01/12/06 $2.00 03/16/06 $0.10 -95.0%
QQQCO
Calls
01/09/06 $2.35 01/11/06 $2.85 +21.3%
QQQAO
Calls
11/28/05 $1.55 01/06/06 $1.75 +12.9%
QQQMP
Puts
11/10/05 $1.90 11/25/05 $0.85 -55.3%
QQQLL
Calls
10/20/05 $1.50 11/03/05 $2.30 +53.3%
QQQJM
Calls
08/04/05 $1.75 10/19/05 $0.05 -97.1%
QQQTM
Puts
05/31/05 $1.35 06/23/05 $1.55 +14.8%
QQQSJ
Puts
05/03/05 $1.45 05/11/05 $1.35 -6.9%
QQQSJ
Puts
04/21/05 $1.55 04/29/05 $1.90 +22.6%
QQCRL
Puts
04/06/05 $1.45 04/12/05 $1.90 +31.0%
QQCOM
Puts
01/26/05 $1.70 03/16/05 $1.85 +8.8%
QQCON
Puts
12/15/04 $1.35 01/20/05 $2.20 +63.0%
QQQMO
Puts
12/03/04 $1.20 12/08/04 $1.80 +50.0%
QQQMM
Puts
11/08/04 $1.70 11/16/04 $1.40 -17.6%
QQQLI
Calls
10/08/04 $1.95 10/28/04 $2.55 +30.8%
QQQIJ
Calls
07/06/04 $1.60 09/13/04 $0.10 -93.8%
QQQSK
Puts
06/07/04 $1.40 07/01/04 $0.65 -53.6%
QQQEJ
Calls
04/07/04 $1.50 05/21/04 $0.00 -100.0%
QQQEI
Calls
03/30/04 $1.60 04/02/04 $2.35 +46.9%
QQQDK
Calls
03/05/04 $0.80 03/26/04 $0.20 -75.0%
QQQDK
Calls
02/24/04 $0.95 03/02/04 $1.25 +31.6%
QQQDK
Calls
02/20/04 $1.20 02/23/04 $1.40 +16.7%
QQQCK
Calls
02/18/04 $1.15 02/19/04 $1.45 +26.1%
QQQCK
Calls
02/04/04 $1.15 02/12/04 $1.45 +26.1%
QQQOL
Puts
01/20/04 $1.20 01/28/04 $1.50 +25.0%
QQQAI
Calls
12/05/03 $1.40 12/30/03 $1.70 +21.4%
QQQAI
Calls
11/26/03 $1.30 12/01/03 $1.65 +26.9%
QQQAH
Calls
11/20/03 $1.55 11/24/03 $2.10 +35.5%
QAVLH
Puts
10/29/03 $0.75 11/17/03 $0.90 +20.0%
QAVLH
Calls
10/27/03 $1.30 10/28/03 $1.70 +30.8%

Old System History

How results are calculated:

  • The trade entry price is based on the actual market price of the option at the moment it trades at or below the "Suggested Entry Price" (this applies only once a trade signal has been issued). Should the market open much lower than its previous closing price, the trade entry price might be substantially lower than the "Suggested Entry Price".

  • The exit to cash price is based on the actual market price of the option at the moment it trades at or above the "Suggested Exit Price" (this applies only once a trade signal has been issued). Should the market open much higher than its previous closing price, the trade exit price might be substantially higher than the "Suggested Exit Price".

  • The percent growth figure in the table above does not represent a compounded rate of return but a summary return. We do not calculate compounded rates of return since we do not want to encourage traders to invest all of their capital in options. We encourage you to invest only a small portion of your assets in options – an amount that will fit your personal trading needs and risk tolerance. In our opinion, that amount should be about 10% of your total portfolio; it should never exceed 30%.

  • The results shown do not include brokerage commissions, taxes, or interest earned on cash positions.

  • The trade results in the following table are based on simple trades without the use of margin.

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