This is the old signals history. The old options system differs
from the new system by many parameters. The history of the signals generated by
the old system does not reflect the performance of the new system therefore we
keep it separate. The radical changes in the system were implemented to bring
significant improvements to system performance. As you can see from the history,
the system generated 7 positive versus 3 negative signals in 2005, however, the
negative trades wiped out all of the previously earned positive returns.
After research, we have set the following points which should be
changed in the system in order to improve the system's performance:
- The old system issued signals only after the market
close. After market close, the data was analyzed,
and based on this analysis, a trade was opened or closed. In some cases, the
market put us in a position where we had to close our trade 10-15% lower,
simply because we had to do it on the next trading day.
The ability to analyze the market on the fly and generate corresponding
signals during the trading hours was obviously a necessity.
- The trades with bigger then 50% loss practically wiped
out all of the previously generated positive returns. Even the fact that the
system was 60-70% efficient, did not help. The system needed a hard coded
stop-loss strategy to protect from losses which made recovery difficult.
Research shows that it's easier to recover from
three 30% negative trades then from one 90% loss.
- The options price is affected by time, and staying in a
position longer then one month makes it extremely difficult to close the
position with positive returns even when the market moves in favor of the
position. Furthermore, the system needed to be protected from being in the
position for a prolonged period of time. The system needed a hard coded
strategy to close a trade even with losses if the system was in a position
for more then a 3-4 week period.
- Due to the high QQQQ volatility the system needed
alternative and more conservative signals. We therefore decided to include
SPY options signals in the system that would be less aggressive and more
dedicated towards the conservative traders.
- The old options trading system was not designed for
autotrading and was not autotraded. In order to satisfy demands of those
traders who wished to autotrade our signals, the system had to be changed to
fit the autotrading requirements.
The #3 and #4 points were set to protect the system from the
big losses; however, these points could lead the system into generating more
negative trades. On the other hand the #1 and #4 points were set to keep the
system's efficiency at least on the same level.
We started to make changes to the system in April 2006 and all
changes were completed in July 2006. Because of the radical changes that
completely changed the system, we have maintained the history of the old system
separate.
Signal |
Entry Date |
Entry Price |
Exit Date |
Exit Price |
Profit % |
On July 22, 2006, SPY options signals were added to the system. |
QQQIK Calls |
07/10/06 15:40 |
$1.65 |
07/14/06 11:15 |
$1.00 |
-39.4% |
QQQIL Calls |
06/19/06 09:30 |
$2.00 |
07/10/06 13:42 |
$1.10 |
-45.0% |
On May 17, 2006, stop-loss criteria were added to the system and the stop-loss price is posted from the first date that the signal is issued. |
QQQGO Calls |
05/11/06 14:33 |
$1.20 |
06/16/06 15:27 |
$0.15 |
-87.5% |
QQQSQ Puts |
05/09/06 09:52 |
$1.40 |
05/10/06 15:26 |
$1.65 |
+17.9% |
QQQGP Calls |
04/26/06 09:31 |
$1.40 |
04/27/06 12:18 |
$1.70 |
+21.4% |
QQQFP Calls |
04/18/06 09:30 |
$1.15 |
04/18/06 12:19 |
$1.40 |
+21.7% |
QQQFP Calls |
04/12/06 10:51 |
$1.25 |
04/17/06 10:14 |
$1.40 |
+12.0% |
QQQRQ Puts |
04/06/06 10:50 |
$1.20 |
04/10/06 13:45 |
$1.40 |
+16.7% |
Starting on April 1, 2006, signals are issued during the trading hours and not after the market closure. |
QQQCP Calls |
01/12/06 |
$2.00 |
03/16/06 |
$0.10 |
-95.0% |
QQQCO Calls |
01/09/06 |
$2.35 |
01/11/06 |
$2.85 |
+21.3% |
QQQAO Calls |
11/28/05 |
$1.55 |
01/06/06 |
$1.75 |
+12.9% |
QQQMP Puts |
11/10/05 |
$1.90 |
11/25/05 |
$0.85 |
-55.3% |
QQQLL Calls |
10/20/05 |
$1.50 |
11/03/05 |
$2.30 |
+53.3% |
QQQJM Calls |
08/04/05 |
$1.75 |
10/19/05 |
$0.05 |
-97.1% |
QQQTM Puts |
05/31/05 |
$1.35 |
06/23/05 |
$1.55 |
+14.8% |
QQQSJ Puts |
05/03/05 |
$1.45 |
05/11/05 |
$1.35 |
-6.9% |
QQQSJ Puts |
04/21/05 |
$1.55 |
04/29/05 |
$1.90 |
+22.6% |
QQCRL Puts |
04/06/05 |
$1.45 |
04/12/05 |
$1.90 |
+31.0% |
QQCOM Puts |
01/26/05 |
$1.70 |
03/16/05 |
$1.85 |
+8.8% |
QQCON Puts |
12/15/04 |
$1.35 |
01/20/05 |
$2.20 |
+63.0% |
QQQMO Puts |
12/03/04 |
$1.20 |
12/08/04 |
$1.80 |
+50.0% |
QQQMM Puts |
11/08/04 |
$1.70 |
11/16/04 |
$1.40 |
-17.6% |
QQQLI Calls |
10/08/04 |
$1.95 |
10/28/04 |
$2.55 |
+30.8% |
QQQIJ Calls |
07/06/04 |
$1.60 |
09/13/04 |
$0.10 |
-93.8% |
QQQSK Puts |
06/07/04 |
$1.40 |
07/01/04 |
$0.65 |
-53.6% |
QQQEJ Calls |
04/07/04 |
$1.50 |
05/21/04 |
$0.00 |
-100.0% |
QQQEI Calls |
03/30/04 |
$1.60 |
04/02/04 |
$2.35 |
+46.9% |
QQQDK Calls |
03/05/04 |
$0.80 |
03/26/04 |
$0.20 |
-75.0% |
QQQDK Calls |
02/24/04 |
$0.95 |
03/02/04 |
$1.25 |
+31.6% |
QQQDK Calls |
02/20/04 |
$1.20 |
02/23/04 |
$1.40 |
+16.7% |
QQQCK Calls |
02/18/04 |
$1.15 |
02/19/04 |
$1.45 |
+26.1% |
QQQCK Calls |
02/04/04 |
$1.15 |
02/12/04 |
$1.45 |
+26.1% |
QQQOL Puts |
01/20/04 |
$1.20 |
01/28/04 |
$1.50 |
+25.0% |
QQQAI Calls |
12/05/03 |
$1.40 |
12/30/03 |
$1.70 |
+21.4% |
QQQAI Calls |
11/26/03 |
$1.30 |
12/01/03 |
$1.65 |
+26.9% |
QQQAH Calls |
11/20/03 |
$1.55 |
11/24/03 |
$2.10 |
+35.5% |
QAVLH Puts |
10/29/03 |
$0.75 |
11/17/03 |
$0.90 |
+20.0% |
QAVLH Calls |
10/27/03 |
$1.30 |
10/28/03 |
$1.70 |
+30.8% |
|
Old System History
How results are calculated:
-
The trade entry price is based
on the actual market price of the option at the moment it trades
at or below the
"Suggested Entry Price" (this
applies only once a trade signal has been issued). Should the market
open much lower than its previous closing price, the trade entry
price might be substantially lower than the
"Suggested Entry Price".
-
The exit to cash price is based
on the actual market price of the option at the moment it trades
at or above the
"Suggested Exit Price" (this
applies only once a trade signal has been issued). Should the market
open much higher than its previous closing price, the trade exit
price might be substantially higher than the
"Suggested Exit Price".
-
The percent growth figure in the
table above does not represent a compounded rate of return but a
summary return. We do not calculate compounded rates of return since
we do not want to encourage traders to invest all of their capital
in options. We encourage you to invest only a small portion of your
assets in options � an amount that will fit your personal trading
needs and risk tolerance. In our opinion, that amount should be
about 10% of your total portfolio; it should never exceed 30%.
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